Throughout modern Nigeria’s history, religious fundamentalism
has created fear and violent conflict. Although Islamic fundamentalism has threatened to supplant traditional Islam throughout the world, Nigeria’s Sokoto caliphate will likely remain firmly opposed to any form of jihadist extremism that tries to establish itself in the region or challenge the caliphate’s growing influence.

The caliphate’s arguably moderate interpretation and application of Shar’ia law in the northern Nigerian states will likely
prove a stabilizing force, bringing order and structure along the
vast Sahel region of the southern Sahara Desert.

By contrast,Nigeria’s Christian south has both benefited from biblical morality and suffered from gang-like criminality as evidenced by the rise of vigilante groups such as the Bakassi boys, who sought exact justice for real and perceived injustices.

By 2020 the continued consolidation of wealth in the hands of a few southern oligarchs may succeed in“professionalizing” this criminality. With religious passions contained and these criminal elements functioning as private commercial family enterprises, the likelihood for religious conflict between the Islamic north and the Christian/animist south will be reduced.

As the Muslim population is now the dominant population in
Nigeria, the Sokoto caliphate will take pains to contain the passions of its youth by inculcating them with their interpretation of
the basic tenets of Islam while commanding respect for Shar’ia law and Nigerian federal law.

The result of the careful cultivation of their large and growing youth population is stability and religious homogeneity in the north.
Based on the caliphate’s political calculus, this stability is necessary for the Islamic leaders to implement a new grand political-theocratic strategy, which will bring them full political power and the opportunity to establish an Islamic Republic in the scheduled 2031 elections.

Source – Extract from
Failed State 2030
Nigeria-A Case Study