I would love to start this supposedly essay on diplomatic predictions with the solemn fact that nothing lasts forever. It doesn't matter the time, once an empire can be weakened over time. If this is true, the question remains, how many people are under the science of time and seasons? This is where most people on this earth are lagging. Not understanding times and seasons, could be disastrous to people. Furthermore, understanding times without knowing what to do at a mathematically defined accurate period, could as well, be more destructive than not understanding times and seasons.
The current events in Africa amongst big players, should be an issue of concern to anyone who cares to know. Africa despite the alleged "poor continent" mantra promoted by the exploitative West, has been from a historical perspective, a centre of actors contentions. From the Berlin Conference to the Second World War now to the current Russo-Anglo-Saxon quagmires. Russia has developed a keen interest in Africa and like a wind fire 🔥, she is spreading rapidly within the continent at the bewilderment of stakeholders of the continent.
What surprises commentators of the continent, is how Russia is demolishing primordial colonial structures within the continent without more fight from the dwindling powers. For instance, France has been badly affected by the Russian wind within the continent and the effect of it is currently biting the French economy. From losing their Uranium reserve in Niger to the gold reserve in Mali down to the resources in Burkina Faso, CAR, Guinea Conakry, and many more places. Courtesy of the Russian decision to motivate these states to kick France away.
Emmanuel Macron today has come to the reality of the fact that their places of resources sourcing in Africa especially among what used to be French outlets in Africa are gone! What French intelligence is amazed at, was how nonexpansionist Russia overnight, became too mad and aggressive in competing with the West in Africa with every might of hers. If there is any opposing entity they were prepared to contend with in Africa, it is China and not Russia. Russian foreign policy in Africa which is engulfing the entire continent with ecstasies, was never dictated within the Western intelligence circuits.
For the Russians, the fight in Africa is a must that should be engaged if the West should be weakened. No wonder she is viciously strangulating the Western footprints in Africa with all her nights (Food Diplomacy, Energy Diplomacy, Military Support, and Diplomatic support). For the energy-stealing West, the tactics deployed by Russia in Africa are too high to compete with favorably. No wonder they are all adjusting to the fact that Russia is winning in Africa. From America recognizing the military leadership in Niger to France, Britain, and Germany failing to push their puppet Nigeria and ECOWAS into Niger.
The question remains if Russia could deal with less enemy France in Africa, do you think Russia would fail to teach her arch-enemy UK lesson in Africa? Responding Yes or No to the above-mentioned question might not be ideal. The best way is to look at Russian moves and through that, one can deduce the right response. In Africa, the largest farmland Britain owns is Nigeria. Nigeria remains a British harvest ground that like France in Niger, if you get Nigeria off British grip, UK stock will fall forthwith. Russian Military Intelligence and leadership understand this too well. Having understood that they also understand the complexity of Nigeria's internal dynamics that can be harnessed for their project of destroying the British Farmland called Nigeria.
Today, while Nigerians are cajoled by the influx of psychological manipulations of hybrid dimensions called content creators, the country is gradually encircled by Russians. No one tends to talk about it because no one wants anyone to see the reality of the time. From Russian moral support amongst her boys in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso to current military build-ups, no Nigeria media is permitted to inform the heavily misinformed population.
Today, Russia has successfully asked these countries assisting Nigeria in curtailing Boko Haram to pull out of the joint military operations just to allow Nigeria to suffer the mother of all terrorists unleashing in Northern Nigeria. These countries pulling out means that all military and intelligence cooperation is suspended. What it implies is that Nigeria will solemnly bear the burdens of combating the terrorists alone and thus might be weighed down by the problem. It is quite a disturbing moment for the Nigerian state. While that is going on, Russia just sent her top military personnel to Niger just a few kilometers away from Nigeria for upgrading of military cooperation.
Those in ASO Rock pretend nothing is happening in the neighborhood because they fear that Nigeria currently is internally divided to face any external tensions. But the fact remains that no sane country watches in silence, an enemy neighbor builds up her military might. Russia is busy installing equipment that might threaten Nigeria Airforce operations, especially within the Northern regions, yet both funny Akpabio the Senate President, and Emilokan the Nigerian President are all in love with eating Amala rather than focusing on serious events in their neighbourhood. If Niger is militarily built up as things are going, she can have the courage to annex both Sokoto State and Katsina State respectively, or even support agitations within the Northern region against Nigeria's current unity.
Every index shows that Russia is in the know of the need to disrupt the British Farmland called Nigeria and every information in the public domain shows the same. What is important here is for everyone within the soon-collapsing Nigerian state to make contingency plans both in investment plans and other decisions. Many Western investors are akin to this fact, and that is one reason despite Nigerian's large market size, choosing relatively small market sizes like Ghana as investment destinations. Their home countries do inform them of the impossibility of the Nigerian future. Russia quite understood that to punish Britain, Nigeria must be touched!
Written by
Chika Austine
